Tuesday, October 7, 2014

The Case Against Qatar BY Elizabeth Dickinson – Foreign Policy



BY Elizabeth Dickinson – Foreign Policy

The tiny, gas-rich emirate has pumped tens of millions of dollars through obscure funding networks to hard-line Syrian rebels and extremist Salafists, building a foreign policy that punches above its weight. After years of acquiescing -- even taking advantage of its ally's meddling -- Washington may finally be punching back.
  • SEPTEMBER 30, 2014

ABU DHABI and DOHA — Behind a glittering mall near Doha's city center sits the quiet restaurant where Hossam used to run his Syrian rebel brigade. At the battalion's peak in 2012 and 2013, he had 13,000 men under his control near the eastern city of Deir Ezzor. "Part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), they are loyal to me," he said over sweet tea and sugary pastries this spring. "I had a good team to fight."
Hossam, a middle-aged Syrian expat, owns several restaurants throughout Doha, Qatar, catering mostly to the country's upper crust. The food is excellent, and at night the tables are packed with well-dressed Qataris, Westerners, and Arabs. Some of his revenue still goes toward supporting brigades and civilians with humanitarian goods -- blankets, food, even cigarettes.
He insists that he has stopped sending money to the battle, for now. His brigade's funds came, at least in part, from Qatar, he says, under the discretion of then Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Khalid bin Mohammed Al Attiyah. But the injection of cash was ad hoc: Dozens of other brigades like his received initial start-up funding, and only some continued to receive Qatari support as the months wore on. When the funds ran out in mid-2013, his fighters sought support elsewhere. "Money plays a big role in the FSA, and on that front, we didn't have," he explained.
Hossam is a peripheral figure in a vast Qatari network of Islamist-leaning proxies that spans former Syrian generals, Taliban insurgents, Somali Islamists, and Sudanese rebels. He left home in 1996 after more than a decade under pressure from the Syrian regime for his sympathy with the Muslim Brotherhood. Many of his friends were killed in a massacre of the group in Hama province in 1982 by then President Hafez al-Assad. He finally found refuge here in Qatar and built his business and contacts slowly. Mostly, he laid low; Doha used to be quite welcoming to the young President Bashar al-Assad and his elegant wife, who were often spotted in the high-end fashion boutiques before the revolt broke out in 2011.
When the Syrian war came and Qatar dropped Assad, Hossam joined an expanding pool of middlemen whom Doha called upon to carry out its foreign policy of supporting the Syrian opposition. Because there were no established rebels when the uprising started, Qatar backed the upstart plans of expats and businessmen who promised they could rally fighters and guns. Hossam, like many initial rebel backers, had planned to devote his own savings to supporting the opposition. Qatar's donations made it possible to think bigger.
In recent months, Qatar's Rolodex of middlemen like Hossam has proved both a blessing and a curse for the United States. On one hand, Washington hasn't shied away from calling on Doha's connections when it needs them: Qatar orchestrated the prisoner swap that saw U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl freed in exchange for five Taliban prisoners in Guantánamo Bay. And it ran the negotiations with al-Nusra Front, al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, that freed American writer Peter Theo Curtis in August. "Done," Qatari intelligence chief Ghanim Khalifa al-Kubaisi reportedly texted a contact -- adding a thumbs-up emoticon -- after the release was completed.
But that same Qatari network has also played a major role in destabilizing nearly every trouble spot in the region and in accelerating the growth of radical and jihadi factions. The results have ranged from bad to catastrophic in the countries that are the beneficiaries of Qatari aid: Libya is mired in a war between proxy-funded militias, Syria's opposition has been overwhelmed by infighting and overtaken by extremists, and Hamas's intransigence has arguably helped prolong the Gaza Strip's humanitarian plight.
For years, U.S. officials have been willing to shrug off Doha's proxy network -- or even take advantage of it from time to time. Qatar's neighbors, however, have not.
Over the past year, fellow Gulf countries Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain have publicly rebuked Qatar for its support of political Islamists across the region.
Over the past year, fellow Gulf countries Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain have publicly rebuked Qatar for its support of political Islamists across the region. These countries have threatened to close land borders or suspend Qatar's membership in the regional Gulf Cooperation Council unless the country backs down. After nearly a year of pressure, the first sign of a Qatari concession came on Sept. 13, when seven senior Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood figures left Doha at the request of the Qatari government.
Both Qatar and its critics are working to ensure that Washington comes down on their side of the intra-Gulf dispute. At stake is the future political direction of the region -- and their roles in guiding it.
Late last week, on Sept. 25, Glenn Greenwald's The Intercept documented how a Washington, D.C.-based firm retained by the United Arab Emirates made contacts with journalists that appear to have yielded articles detailing how fundraisers for groups such as al-Nusra Front and Hamas operate openly in Doha, Qatar's capital. Foreign Policy also obtained documents from the Camstoll Group, run by former U.S. Treasury Department official Matthew Epstein. Although some of this open-source information is referred to in this article, the vast majority of the reporting comes from months of investigation in the region.
After several weeks of bad press, Qatar is also going on the offensive. "We don't fund extremists," Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani told CNN's Christiane Amanpour during his first interview as Qatar's leader on Sept. 25. Just over a week earlier, Qatar instituted a new law to regulate charities and prevent them from engaging in politics. And on Sept. 15, Doha began a new six-month contract with Washington lobbying firm Portland PR Inc., which may include lobbying Congress and briefing journalists.
So far, Washington appears unwilling to confront Qatar directly. Aside from the U.S. Treasury Department, which last week designated a second Qatari citizen for supporting al Qaeda in Syria and elsewhere, no senior U.S. administration officials have publicly called out Doha for its troublesome clients.
The State Department said that nobody would be available to comment for this article, but released a fact sheet on Aug. 26 that describes Qatar as "a valuable partner to the United States" and credits it with "play[ing] an influential role in the region through a period of great transformation."
The question is what the United States is prepared to do about Qatar if it fails to stem its citizens' support for extremist groups, says Jean-Louis Bruguière, the former head of the EU and U.S. Treasury Department's joint Terrorist Finance Tracking Program, now based in Paris. "The U.S. has the tools to monitor state and state-linked transfers to extremist groups. But intelligence is one thing and the other is how you react," he told FP by phone. "What kind of political decision is the U.S. really able to make against states financing terrorism?"
Friends of Qatar
There is no more telling indication of Qatar's ambitions than the fact that Doha taxi drivers are perpetually lost. With construction ongoing everywhere -- part of a $100 billion infrastructure plan to prepare for hosting the 2022 World Cup -- buildings open and projects come online so fast that the city's cabbies can't keep up.
On the world stage, Qatar sees its role as no less grandiose. Beneath the high-chandeliered ceilings of Doha's five-star hotel lobbies, eager delegations from around the world make their case for support. Governments, political parties, companies, and rebel groups scurry in and out nervously, and then wait over hot tea to have their proposals considered by the relevant Qatari authorities. Which hotel the visitors stay in indicates their prospects for support. The Four Seasons and Ritz-Carlton are old favorites; Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has stayed at the former, the Syrian opposition at the latter. The W Hotel is a posh newcomer, mostly housing eager European delegations seeking investment or natural gas. The Sheraton -- one of Doha's first hotels -- is by now passé; that's where top Darfuri rebels stayed during negotiations with the Sudanese government. Everyone wants into the network, because as one Syrian in Doha put it, "Qatar has money and Qatar can connect money."
The winners in this hustle have often been those with the longest ties to this tiny, gas-rich state -- a menagerie of leaders from the global Muslim Brotherhood. Doha was already becoming an extremist hub by the early 2000s, as government-funded think tanks and universities popped up filled with Islamist-minded thinkers. The government-funded Al Jazeera was growing across the region, offering positive media attention to Brotherhood figures across the Middle East, and many of the ruling family's top advisors were Brotherhood-linked expatriates -- men like the controversial Egyptian cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who heads the International Union of Muslim Scholars from Doha.
What Doha saw in the Muslim Brotherhood was a combination of religiosity and efficacy that seemed parallel to its own. Moreover, the Qatari ruling family sought to differentiate itself from competing monarchies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both of which frown upon political Islam as dangerously power-seeking. It was pragmatism, argues Salah Eddin Elzein, head of the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, a think tank associated with the Qatar-owned satellite network. "Islamists came [to the region] in the 1980s, and Qatar was trying to ally itself with the forces that it saw as those most likely to be the dominant forces for the future."
But the global Muslim Brotherhood isn't Qatar's only -- or even its most important -- network. Nor does the royal family subscribe to the Brotherhood's ideals per se. Often overlooked is a second strand that tows closer to Qatar's official sympathies: the Salafi movement.
Emerging in the 1990s, activist Salafists merged the purist ideology of Saudi Arabia's clerical establishment with the politicized goals of the Muslim Brotherhood. Some of these thinkers would become the first incarnations of al Qaeda, while others gained a strong foothold in liberated Kuwait, where the first activist Salafi political party was formed.
It was in Qatar that the activist Salafists found their benefactor. Over the last 15 years in particular, Doha has become a de facto operating hub for a deeply interconnected community of Salafists living in Qatar but also in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and elsewhere. Clerics have been hosted by ministries and called to talk for important events. Charities have touted the cause -- charities like the Sheikh Eid bin Mohammad al Thani Charity, regulated by the Qatari Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, which is "probably the biggest and most influential activist Salafi-controlled relief organization in the world," according to a recent report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
As early as 2003, the U.S. Congress was made aware that Qatari-based charities were helping move and launder money linked to al Qaeda, providing employment and documentation for key figures in the operation. At the same time, Qatar's global influence was growing: State-backed Qatar Airways began an aircraft-buying spree in 2007 to fuel its vast expansion, linking the once far-flung emirate to every corner of the world. And by 2010, Al Jazeera had evolved into the Arab world's most influential media operation, supported by a massive annual budget of $650 million.
Just as the Arab Spring invigorated opposition movements across the Middle East, so too did it electrify Qatar's network of political clients.
Power projection by proxy

Qatar was the only Gulf country not to view with trepidation the changes that roiled the Arab world starting in 2011. Saudi Arabia was shaken by how quickly Washington dropped its decades-long ally in Egypt, Hosni Mubarak. Bahrain convulsed when its majority Shiite population took to the streets to demand greater political influence. The UAE joined Qatar in backing NATO strikes in Libya but was considerably more reticent about the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood there and in Egypt, fearing the group would invigorate Islamist-sympathizers among its own population.
Qatar, meanwhile, placed a long bet that political Islam was the next big thing that would pay off. "Qatar believes in two things. First, Doha doesn't want the Saudis to be the major or only player in the Sunni region of the Middle East," says Kuwaiti political scientist Abdullah al-Shayji. "Second, Qatar wants to have a role to play as a major power in the region."
Yet mismatched with its grand ambitions, Qatar's foreign policy faced a key limitation. The country is home to just under 300,000 nationals, and government decision-making is concentrated in the hands of just a few officials. Lacking their own infrastructure, Qatar sought to amplify its impact by working through its network of Brotherhood and Salafi allies.
"The Qataris usually work by identifying individuals who they think are ideologically on the same wavelength," says Andreas Krieg, an assistant professor at King's College London and an advisor to the Qatar Armed Forces. "There is no vetting process per se; it's 'these are people we can trust.'"
The first battlefield test of Qatar's proxy chain was in Libya, where there was a broad regional consensus -- as well as U.S. support -- to oust then-leader Muammar al-Qaddafi. Qatar, together with the UAE, had signed on to Western airstrikes against the regime. But Doha also wanted to help build up rebel capacity on the ground.
"They had to literally go to their address book and say, 'Who do we know in Libya?'" says Krieg. "This is how they coordinated the Libya operation." Doha lined up a collection of businessmen, old Brotherhood friends, and ideologically aligned defectors, plying them with tens of millions of dollars and 20,000 tons of arms, the Wall Street Journal later estimated. After a months-long war, the rebels took Tripoli and Qaddafi was dead. Doha's clients found themselves among the most powerful political brokers in the new Libya. And long after the NATO strikes had ended, some Qatari-backed militias continued to receive support, says Bruguière.
Amid the initial euphoria of the Arab Spring, many expected the nascent summer protests in Syria to quickly topple the Assad regime. Presidents in Tunisia and Egypt had lasted just weeks before resigning, after all, and the world had quickly rallied to oust a more persistent Qaddafi. By August, Washington was calling on Assad to step down as well. Not long thereafter, Qatar began its Syrian operation, modeled on the Libyan adventure.
Like the tendering of a contract, Doha issued a call for bidders to help with the regime's overthrow. "When we started our battalion [in 2012], the Qataris said, 'Send us a list of your members. Send us a list of what you want -- the salaries and support needs,'" Hossam, the Syrian restaurant owner, remembers. He and dozens of other would-be rebel leaders submitted a pitch. He doesn't say how much his brigade received, but says his own fundraising efforts for humanitarian goods have yielded hundreds of thousands of riyals.
Qatar's friends abroad were also at work. Throughout 2012 and early 2013, activist Salafists in Kuwaitteamed up with Syrian expatriates to build, fund, and supply extremist brigades that would eventually become groups such as al-Nusra Front and its close ally, Ahrar al-Sham.
Using social media to tout their cause and a deep Rolodex of Kuwaiti business contacts, clerics and other prominent Kuwaiti Sunnis raised hundreds of millions of dollars for their clients.
Using social media to tout their cause and a deep Rolodex of Kuwaiti business contacts, clerics and other prominent Kuwaiti Sunnis raised hundreds of millions of dollars for their clients. They were able to work essentially unhindered thanks to Kuwait's lax counterterrorism financing laws and its freedoms of association and speech.
One such donor was the young Kuwaiti Salafi cleric Hajjaj al-Ajmi, who on Aug. 6 was designated by the U.S. Treasury Department as a funder of terrorism for backing al-Nusra Front. Ajmi runs the so-calledPeople's Commission for the Support of the Syrian Revolution, many of whose campaign posters on Twitter spoke of charity work -- giving food or medicine to the needy and displaced. But back in June 2012, Qatar's Ministry of Endowments and Islamic Affairs invited the cleric to speak in the coastal city of Al Khor, 30 miles outside Doha, where he argued that humanitarian support alone would never topple the Syrian regime.
"Did you know that bringing down Damascus would not cost more than $10 million?" he intoned, wagging his fingers from his chair in front of the old Syrian flag adopted by revolutionaries. "The priority is the support for the jihadists and arming them."
In the months that followed, many of Ajmi's campaigns in Kuwait ran parallel collections in Qatar. Donations could be placed through a representative named Mubarak al-Ajji, according to campaign posters, which affirm he is under Ajmi's "supervision." Ajji's Twitter bio describes him as loving Sunni jihadists who hate "Shiites and infidels." His timeline is flush with praise for Osama bin Laden.
One of Ajmi's Kuwaiti colleagues, a cleric named Mohammad al-Owaihan, also used Qatar as a base, calling it his "second country" in a tweet in August. As recently as April, Owaihan solicited Qataris to help prepare fighters for battle on the Syrian coast. "Our jihad is a jihad of Money in Syria," one poster read, offering contact numbers in Kuwait and Qatar.
These fundraising efforts were well-honed appeals, for example placing donors in special categories for donations of varying sizes. A "gold" gift was 10,000 Qatari riyals ($2,750), while a "silver" donation came in at 5,000 riyals. When particularly generous donations arrived, Ajji and others reported them on Twitter, for example posting photos of jewelry turned over to fund the cause.
Among the grateful rebel brigades that released videos thanking the Kuwaiti cleric Owaihan is Ahrar al-Sham, a Salafi group that counted an al Qaeda operative as one of its top commanders until he was killed this year: "O the kind people of Qatar, O people of the Gulf, your money has arrived," an October 2013video from the brigade proclaims. Ajmi boasted of his proximity to Ahrar al-Sham on Sept. 9 in a tweetshowing the private online message the group's leader sent him when the Kuwaiti cleric was designated and sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department.
All of these fundraising activities were orchestrated by individuals -- not the government -- as Qatar has noted in its defense in recent weeks. But this is also exactly the point: By relying on middlemen, Doha not only outsourced the work but also the liability of meddling. And even where it wasn't involved directly, Qatar is not unaware of what's going on in its network.
Many clerics in the activist Salafi movement have, like Ajmi, been outspoken in their backing of groups like al-Nusra Front in Syria -- views that have found a welcome audience among government-backed organizations in Doha. Saudi cleric Mohammad al-Arefe, who has called for arming jihadists in Syria and Palestine, was invited by Qatar's Ministry of Endowments and Islamic Affairs in March 2012 and January 2014 to deliver a Friday sermon and a lecture at Qatar's Grand Mosque. Kuwaiti Salafist Nabil al-Awadhy -- a known fundraiser for groups close to al-Nusra Front -- was the featured lecturer in Qatar at a Ramadan festival on July 4, 2014, hosted by a charity and aid group closely linked with the government.
Hostage to proxies
Qatar's Arab Spring strategy began to fail in the same place it was conceived, amid the masses of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square. On July 3, 2013, demonstrators cheered on the Egyptian military's ouster of Islamist leader Mohamed Morsi, whose government Qatar had backed to the tune of $5 billion. Within days, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait welcomed the new military-backed government with combined pledges of $13 billion in aid. Days later, Saudi Arabia seized control of backing the Syrian opposition by installing its preferred political leadership. By early fall, Libya was also falling into utter disarray, exemplified by thetemporary kidnapping of the country's prime minister in October 2013. Doha, which had just seen the ascension of a new 33-year-old emir, meekly vowed to focus on internal affairs.
"One of the things about Qatar's foreign policy is the extent to which it has been a complete and total failure, almost an uninterrupted series of disasters," says Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine. "Except it's all by proxy, so nothing bad ever happens to Qatar."
In both Libya and Syria, Qatar helped fund internationally backed umbrella groups -- but it also channeled support to individuals and militias directly. In Libya, for example, one of Qatar's main conduits to the rebels, the Doha-based cleric Ali al-Sallabi, clashed furiously with Mahmoud Jibril, a Western-backed leader who served as interim prime minister until he resigned in October 2011, warning of "chaos" as various factions battled for control. Today, that warning seems prescient as Libya is mired in an accelerating battle between various rival militias split along regional and ideological lines. The UAE, using U.S.-made jets and operating out of Egypt, has reportedly undertaken several rounds of airstrikes to roll back Qatari-funded Islamists since mid-August.
But it is in Syria where Qatar's network most spectacularly misfired. Competition between Qatari and Saudi clients has rendered the political opposition toothless, perceived on the ground as a vassal of foreign powers. Meanwhile throughout 2012 and 2013, the proliferation of upstart rebel groups bred competition for funding. Some of Qatar's clients became key brigades -- groups such as Liwa al-Tawhid, whose leader unified rebels in a fractious fight to control Aleppo. Others like Hossam's, however, simply folded or lingered weakly, focusing on their own ideals and goals.
In other words, there was no one winner.
Qatar and other international powers haphazardly backed dozens of different brigades and let them fight it out for who could secure a greater share of the funding.
Qatar and other international powers haphazardly backed dozens of different brigades and let them fight it out for who could secure a greater share of the funding. They had few incentives to cooperate on operations, let alone strategy. Nor did their various backers have any incentive to push them together, since this might erode their own influence over the rebels.
Qatar's bidding system for support also quickly incentivized corruption, as middlemen began to exaggerate their abilities and contacts on the ground to donors in Doha. "Often, groups would submit maybe 3,000 names, but in reality there would be only 300 or 400 people," says Hossam, the restaurant owner. "The extra money goes in the wrong way. They would do the same thing with operations. If the actual needs were $1 million, maybe they say $5 million. Then the other $4 million disappears."
The disarray helped push fighters increasingly toward some of the groups that seemed to have a stronger command of their funding and their goals -- groups such as al-Nusra Front and eventually the Islamic State, which split from the al Qaeda affiliate in early 2014. The last year has seen a string of defections from more moderate groups into these extremist elements. In December 2013, for example, former Deir Ezzor Free Syrian Army commander Saddam al-Jamal announced in a video that he was joining the Islamic State because "as days passed, we realized that [the FSA] was a project that was funded by foreign countries, especially Qatar," he said.
It's unlikely that the Qatari government -- or any Gulf state -- ever backed the Islamic State, an organization that today has in its cross-hairs all of the U.S.-allied monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula, and vice versa. But as in Jamal's case, some of the individuals who benefited from Qatari funds did go on to join more radical brigades, taking their experience and arms with them.
"Qatar developed early on relations with rebel groups that later radicalized and joined the Salafi-jihadi universe, including Nusra and possibly [the Islamic State]," explains Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The evolving nature of the Syrian rebellion created often unintended and problematic if at times beneficial entanglements."
Even as the Syrian opposition gravitated toward the extreme, Qatar argued in late 2012 that the world should worry about radicals later. "I am very much against excluding anyone at this stage, or bracketing them as terrorists, or bracketing them as al Qaeda," Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah, then minister of state for foreign affairs, argued at a security conference in December of that year.
That sentiment was reiterated by Emir Tamim in his interview with CNN last week, arguing that it would be a "big mistake" to lump together all Islamist-leaning groups in Syria as extremists. Indeed, in all its recent statements rejecting extremism, Doha has mentioned the Islamic State but never al-Nusra Front by name.
Elzein, of the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, defends Qatar's support for Islamists across the Middle East. He describes the spat between Doha and the other Gulf monarchies as a competition "between powers for the status quo and for change, where Qatar sided itself with change in the region."
"Qatar's foreign policy generated a lot of controversy, but perhaps that was part of its very nature," he says. "When you try something new in a region known to be very conservative, it's bound to bring that kind of criticism and misperception."
And indeed, Qatar is far from the only Gulf country whose role in Syria and elsewhere has had negative repercussions. Saudi Arabia has also backed individuals and disparate rebel groups in Syria, and the UAE has sided with specific militias in Libya. In Egypt, a government strongly backed by both countries has overseen mass human rights abuses as it cracks down against the Muslim Brotherhood.
But it's still hard to see what Qatar has changed for the better. Although its intentions to help the Syrian people were almost certainly genuine, a combination of haphazard methods and support for ideological proxies helped push the opposition toward both radicalization and disarray.
Washington and Doha

Qatar had such freedom to run its network for the last three years because Washington was looking the other way. In fact, in 2011, the United States gave Doha de facto free rein to do what it wasn't willing to in the Middle East: intervene.
Libya was a case in point. When U.S. President Barack Obama's administration began building a coalition for airstrikes in the spring of 2011, it took an approach later coined "leading from behind": France and Britain took the lead in implementing the no-fly zone, while Qatar's and the United Arab Emirates' involvement demonstrated Arab support. When Doha stepped forward to help organize the rebels, they were broadly welcomed, former U.S. officials said in interviews with FP.
The same was true in Syria. Despite reticence among certain camps of the U.S. government, particularly those who had worked on Libya, it was still the least-worst option: Qatar, an ally of the United States, could help provide a regional solution to a conflict the White House had no interest in getting entangled in. Washington simply asked Doha not to send anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles to the rebels, which itoccasionally did anyway.
On top of the political convenience was the logistical ease of working with the Qataris. Doha makes decisions quickly -- and is willing to take risks. While the Saudis moved slowly getting arms into Syria, the Qataris sent planes to move an estimated 3,500 tons of military equipment in 2012 and 2013, reportedly with the CIA's backing. "Their interagency process has about three people in it," said one former U.S. official.
The same upsides meant that Washington turned to Doha when it sought to make contact with the Afghan Taliban in 2011 and 2012. The goal was to help smooth the exit of NATO troops from Afghanistan with a political solution. In on-and-off contacts, always made indirectly through the Qataris, the Taliban agreed to negotiate -- but first they wanted an office. In June 2013, they got it: a large villa in the embassy district of Doha near a crowded traffic circle known as Rainbow Roundabout.
But Qatar's advantages soon turned into liabilities. As Doha moved from crisis to crisis, the Qataris showed little ability to choose reliable proxies or to control them once resources had been pumped in. "My view is that Qatari policymaking was a bit amateur. When they got in, they showed no staying power," the ex-U.S. official said.
In the Taliban case, Doha proved unable or unwilling to stop the Afghan militants from audaciously raising their flag over their new Qatari villa -- an act of diplomatic symbolism that infuriated Kabul and scuppered talks before they began. All that could be salvaged from the process, it became clear a year later, was aprisoner exchange that traded U.S. Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl for five top Taliban commanders being held in Guantánamo Bay. Qatar gave its assurances that the five operatives would be under close watch in Doha -- but given the country's history, that doesn't necessarily mean they won't influence the Afghan battlefield.
In Syria, meanwhile, it wasn't until the Islamic State gained prominence that Washington sat up and took notice. In March, David S. Cohen, the Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, took the unprecedented step of calling out the Qataris in public for a "permissive terrorist financing environment." Such stark criticism, counterterrorism experts say, is usually left for closed-door conversations. A public airing likely indicated Doha wasn't responsive to Washington's private requests.
This summer, the conflict between Israel and Hamas also shone fresh light on Qatar's links to extremists in Palestine. Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has been based in Doha since breaking with the Syrian regime in 2012, and Qatar has worked to rehabilitate the group politically and financially ever since. In October of that year, Qatar's emir visited the Gaza Strip himself, pledging $400 million in aid.
Before and during the latest Gaza war, fellow Gulf states began to lobby in Washington to get tough with Qatar. In 2013, the UAE spent $14 million -- more than any other country -- on lobbying in Washington, according to data compiled by the Sunlight Foundation. The Camstoll Group, which has been linked to recent media coverage, has held a contract since 2012 that disclosure documents indicate can represent fees of up to $400,000 a month. In the first half of 2013, it earned $4.3 million for activities that disclosure documents describe as advising on matters of "illicit financial activities." (Disclosure: Foreign Policy'sPeaceGame program, presented in conjunction with the U.S. Institute of Peace, is underwritten in part by a grant from the UAE Embassy. All FP editorial content, however, is entirely independent.)
Heads have begun to in Washington. In a Sept. 9 hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives, witnesses and congressmen suggested measures that would dramatically recast the relationship between Washington and Doha. In testimony, Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, proposed measures that could "send shock waves through the Qatari financial system": designating charities and individuals in Qatar, putting a hold on an $11 billion arms deal, and even opening an assessment into the cost of moving the U.S. military base away from the emirate.
"Excellent ideas," hearing chairman Rep. Ted Poe (R-Texas) said in reply to the witnesses. "We ought to take them all and implement as many as we can."
The U.S. Treasury Department is also stepping up efforts to crack down on al Qaeda and Islamic State funds; on Sept. 24, it designated several individuals with links to Qatar. In addition to a Qatari national alleged to have moved funds from Gulf donors to Afghanistan, the designations include Tariq Bin-Al-Tahar Bin Al Falih Al-Awni Al-Harzi, who gathered support from Qatar, including by arranging for the Islamic State "to receive approximately $2 million from a Qatar-based [Islamic State] financial facilitator, who required that Al-Harzi use the funds for military operations only," the designation says.
Doha's pushback in reply is just the latest iteration of a long-running bidding war among Gulf states for Washington's favor. Qatar has increased its visibility in Washington in recent years, holding active contracts with lobbying groups Patton Boggs, Barbour Griffith and Rogers, and BGR Government Affairs. With its vast philanthropic arms, it has sponsored everything from student exchange programs to the congressional charity baseball game. Since the global financial crisis, various Qatari investment funds have also invested in property in Washington, Chicago, and elsewhere.
Qatar's money runs even more obliquely as well, through the dozens of consultants, businessmen, and former officials whom it has hired at one point or another.
Qatar's money runs even more obliquely as well, through the dozens of consultants, businessmen, and former officials whom it has hired at one point or another. Take the Soufan Group, for example, a well-regarded consultancy on counterterrorism and intelligence. Its founder, Ali Soufan, is also executive directorof the Qatar International Academy for Security Studies (QIASS) in Doha, a government-funded center that offers several-week courses to government and military employees. Several other Soufan Group employees are also listed as employees there -- an affiliation they rarely disclose in U.S. media interviews. Reached by telephone, Lila Ghosh, communications specialist at the group, told FP that the firm did not do any work on behalf of Qatar within the United States.
QIASS also appears to have given former Obama White House spokesman Robert Gibbs's new PR group, the Incite Agency, one of its first jobs. Just weeks after it opened, Incite handled RSVPs for an event co-hosted by the Soufan Group and QIASS on "countering violent extremism." The Incite Agency did not return repeated calls from FP seeking to clarify its relationship with QIASS.
But the biggest reason that Qatar is likely to remain in good favor with Washington isn't money or influence, but necessity. As the United States ramps up a coalition against the Islamic State militants, it will need first and foremost its air base in Qatar, which is serving as the command center for operations -- and then once again, the cover of Arab support.
With Syria and Iraq in chaos, both countries are now populated by a range of extremist actors whom Washington won't want to negotiate with. Doha's up for that job. Most recently, Qatar was called in to help negotiate the release of 45 U.N. peacekeepers taken captive by al-Nusra Front -- and on Sept. 12 itannounced that it had successfully won the soldiers' release. Qatar insists that a ransom was not paid; perhaps the network of Doha-based funders gave the government a certain leverage over the group. Or it just may be that the al Qaeda affiliate wants something even more valuable.
"I think what Qatar can give them is legitimacy," suggests Krieg. In al-Nusra Front's official demands regarding the peacekeeper hostages, for example, it had asked to be taken off the U.N. sanctions list. "Nusra wants to be seen as a legitimate partner against [the Islamic State]; Qatar might be able to offer them a platform in the future," Krieg says.
That's essentially what Qatar has long offered its friends: a platform, with access to money, media, and political capital. Washington has so far played along, but the question is whether the United States is actually getting played.


Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Embracing Assad Is a Better Strategy for the U.S. Than Supporting the Least Bad Jihadis

Former vice chairman, CIA’s National Intelligence Council
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Embracing Assad Is a Better Strategy for the U.S. Than Supporting the Least Bad Jihadis
Posted: 09/29/2014
The Middle East today is in as big a mess as I've seen it in a lifetime. By most measures it still continues to worsen, as ever new enemies to the U.S. pop up onto the scene. It is attracting polarized youthful jihadis from both East and West ready to fight us -- all high on the blood aphrodisiac of beheadings and bombings.

The U.S. and most other countries understandably seek to suppress the present savage civil conflicts raging in Iraq and Syria -- now exemplified at its worst in the spread of the violent jihadi Islamic State. If so, Washington had best look first to ending the civil conflict in Syria, the most efficacious way to start unraveling the Middle Eastern knot.

After the popular movements of the Arab Spring overthrew the Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan and Yemeni leaderships in 2012, it looked as if the Assad regime in Syria would certainly be the next to fall. The U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other regional states gambled that a small push from the outside would suffice to overthrow Assad -- never mind about who exactly would succeed him.
"The time has now come to bite the bullet, admit failure, and to permit -- if not assist -- Assad in quickly winding down the civil war in Syria and expelling the jihadis."

In the event, the gamble failed and Assad has proven remarkably adroit in clinging to power, initially against domestic armed opposition, but then against foreign armed opposition backed by the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and others. The Syrian conflict enticed radical jihadis from around the Muslim world to fight against Assad. Many of these groups are sympathetic to ISIS forces and have facilitated the spread of the Islamic State into Syria -- although there are some jihadis who are in fact hostile to ISIS -- tactically if not ideologically.

BEYOND INTELLIGENCE

It is beyond the capabilities of U.S. intelligence, or any other western states for that matter, to gain the complex strategic and tactical insight and the instinctive feel to successfully manipulate the conflict in the directions we want. These conflicts are riven by extremely intertwined ideological, personal, regional, religious, tactical, and tribal differences that outsiders cannot control in any convincing fashion.Thus Washington has been reduced to the crude instruments of bombing and providing support to jihadi attacks against other jihadis. Nobody has a score card. And it all grows worse. Washington's fear of the Islamic State has now come to supersede the fall of Assad as the primary U.S. goal. Yet it is nearly impossible to succeed in Syria when many of the forces we support against Assad also support the Islamic State, directly or indirectly.
"We cannot both hate Assad and hate those jihadis (like ISIS) who also hate Assad. We fight, crudely put, with al-Qaeda in Syria and against al-Qaeda in Iraq."


Assad is not going to be overthrown in the foreseeable future. He is hardly an ideal ruler, but he is rational, has run a longtime functioning state and is supported by many in Syria who rightly fear what new leader or domestic anarchy might come after his fall. He has not represented a genuinely key threat to the U.S. in the Middle East -- despite neocon rhetoric. The time has now come to bite the bullet, admit failure, and to permit -- if not assist -- Assad in quickly winding down the civil war in Syria and expelling the jihadis. We cannot both hate Assad and hate those jihadis (like ISIS) who also hate Assad. We fight, crudely put, with al-Qaeda in Syria and against al-Qaeda in Iraq. But restoration of order in Syria is essential to the restoration of order in the Iraqi, Lebanese, Israeli and Jordanian borderlands. Permitting Assad to remain in power will also restore a Syria that historically never has acted as a truly "sectarian" or religious state in its behavior in the Middle East -- until attacked by Saudi Arabia for its supposed Shi'ism.

We have little to lose and much to gain in such a reverse in policy vis-à-vis Assad. If we persist on overthrowing him by force, we will perpetuate the disastrous status quo -- an anti-jihadi campaign that the administration has already acknowledged may be morphing into a new open-ended war for years to come -- all the while generating tens of thousands of new jihadis fighting new jihads that we cannot bomb out of existence.

RETURN TO THE OLD ORDER

An end to the Syrian conflict and a return to the old order there will make it easier for Baghdad to develop policies aimed at drying up ISIS on Iraqi soil. Turkey, long a prisoner of its own failed gambit to overthrow Assad, will also gain from restored order in Syria, an end to the refugee flow and a chance to get back to serious negotiations with the now newly empowered Kurds.
"At this point, the most urgent task at hand is to bring an end to war, to raging cross-border conflict that only brings anarchy, deeper polarization, more international armed interventions, heightened emotions, rage and recruitment videos for globalized jihadis."

Yes, it would be nice to bring democracy to Syria, but we surely know now from experience that overthrow of dictators by force -- especially by outside force -- rarely ushers in peace and demonstrably better leadership. The U.S. has in fact all along been more driven by zeal to destroy an Iranian ally than it has by visions of democracy in Syria itself.

At this point, the most urgent task at hand is to bring an end to war, to raging cross-border conflict that only brings anarchy, deeper polarization, more international armed interventions, heightened emotions, rage and recruitment videos for globalized jihadis. But wait, won't Russia and Iran both benefit from an eventual reaffirmation of Assad's power in Damascus? Absolutely. Does that make it the wrong choice then? Should we instead continue to throw good money after bad in the feckless campaign to get rid of Assad? To continue to bomb and bomb and try to find the least bad jihadi group around that will meet the exacting qualifications of hating both the Islamic State and Assad and loving us?

Graham E. Fuller is a former high-ranking official at CIA. His latest book is "Turkey and the Arab Spring: Leadership in the Middle East" (grahamefuller.com).

Unifying the ‘moderate opposition’ is the biggest challenge in Syria David Ignatius REYHANLI, Turkey

Unifying the ‘moderate opposition’ is the biggest challenge in Syria
David Ignatius
REYHANLI, Turkey
As Syrian rebel commander Hamza al-Shamali describes the battle inside Syria, a few miles across the border, the immediate problem isn’t defeating the Islamic State. It’s coordinating the ragtag brigades of the Free Syrian Army into a coherent force that can fill the vacuum once the extremists are driven out.
 “At some point, the Syrian street lost trust in the Free Syrian Army,” he tells me. Shamali explains that many rebel commanders aren’t disciplined, their fighters aren’t well-trained and the loose umbrella organization of the FSA lacks command and control. The extremists of the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra have filled the vacuum. Now, he says, “the question every Syrian has for the opposition is: Are you going to bring chaos or order?”
Shamali is the leader of a group called Harakat Hazm, or “Steadfastness Movement,” which is the biggest U.S.-backed rebel force in Syria. He commands about 4,200 trained and vetted fighters. He’s a lean man, tight as a coiled spring, with a thin beard and eyes hardened by three years of war that killed two of his brothers among nearly 200,000 Syrians who have perished.
The war is just over the Syrian border that bounds the southern edge of Reyhanli, about 525 miles southeast of Istanbul. The town has become a staging point for the rebels; people in the streets often speak Arabic with a Syrian accent, and many cars still have their Syrian license plates. This is where Syrian rebel groups maintain what passes for a military operations center.
In a safe house here, Shamali and his key deputies last weekend gave me the clearest account I’ve heard of the challenge ahead for the Obama administration as it tries to build a force that can “degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State inside Syria. The problem is that the “moderate opposition” that the United States is backing is still largely a fantasy.
Shamali argues that rather than try to combine the motley brigades of the FSA, as some are urging, the opposition should create a new “Syrian national army” that can defeat the extremists and eventually topple President Bashar al-Assad. “We refuse to repeat failed experiments,” he says, explaining why he rejected a merger proposed last week by former opposition leader Ahmad al-Jarba. The proposal to combine existing rebel brigades “is a cut and paste of previous FSA failures,” he warns.
The interview with Shamali offered a rare glimpse inside the group the United States has supported under its nominally “covert” program to train and vet Syrian rebels. Formed in January, Harakat Hazm was the first group to receive U.S. anti-tank missiles; it also has the beginnings of an intelligence network and counterterrorism capability. The United States provides $150 a month for each fighter, and has recorded their biometric data.
Shamali says he’s building a mobile guerrilla force in northern Syria, rather than attempting to hold local territory, as most of the opposition groups do. “You need a strike force — the tip of the spear — that can move very fast.” Then he wants to train local people to “fill the void” as the extremists retreat. Shamali says he would fold his operation into a real national rebel army as soon as it’s formed.
The FSA’s biggest problem has been internecine feuding. Over the past two years, I’ve interviewed various people who tried to become leaders, such as: Abdul-Jabbar Akaidi, Salim Idriss and Jamal Maarouf. They all talked about unifying the opposition but none succeeded. An Arab intelligence source explains: “Until now, the FSA is a kind of mafia. Everyone wants to be head. People inside Syria are tired of this mafia. There is no structure. It’s nothing.” And this from one of the people who have struggled the past three years to organize the resistance.
The puzzle of creating the right structure for training and assisting the moderate opposition will fall largely to Gen. John Allen, a retired Marine who
In framing its Syria strategy, the Obama administration has to face up to a basic political problem, as well as the organizational issues. Most Syrian rebels are fighting because they hate Assad’s regime. They have come to oppose the Islamic State, too, and many rebels appear ready to fight the extremists. But if U.S. airstrikes and other support are seen to be hitting Muslim fighters only, and strengthening the despised Assad, this strategy for creating a “moderate opposition” will likely fail.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Middle East Policy Survey: September 27, 2014


The Coalition:       President Obama’s attempt to form another “coalition of the willing” is foundering on the inherent contradictions of the mission he is undertaking, say a number of US officials privately.  European partners have limited their participation to battlegrounds in Iraq, while Arab partners have limited theirs to Syria.  For the Arabs, all conservative Sunni sheikhdoms and kingdoms, their goal is the overthrow of Shiite Iran’s partner, Bashar al-Assad in Syria.  They have little stake in seeing (what is in their view) the salvation of Iran’s Shiite partners in Baghdad.

The Europeans, on the other hand, while detesting Assad’s regime and accepting in principle that international law allows for military action against Syria, cannot see a clear American strategy for a successful end game in Syria.  As one European diplomat put it recently, “At least in Iraq we are trying to create an inclusive government which strengthens the Sunnis, who, after all, are the key to the success of ISIS.”  [The British, as always, are more sympathetic to aiding the US across-the-board.  Prime Minister Cameron, however, was told in no uncertain terms that the Labor Party would not support a resolution that permitted Britain to engage in military operations outside of Iraq.  This allowed the British Prime Minister to garner an overwhelming 524-43 vote in favor of British participation – a far cry from his failure to fashion a majority in favor of air strikes against Syria in the wake of the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons last spring].

IRAQ:            But even in Iraq, the odds do not favor success and, in the view of a number of US analysts, suggest, at best, stalemate.  Although General John Allen is highly respected for his mobilization of Sunni allies against Al-Qaeda during the surge, as well as his no-nonsense approach to decision making, it will, according to observers be a formidable undertaking to bring together a ground force comprised of so many disparate elements.  The Kurds, who, at first reeled in face of the ISIS onslaught, are anything but willing partners with a Shiite led government in Baghdad [Although one analyst argued this week that Kurdish dreams of independence received a harsh dose of reality when it took US airpower aiding an Iraqigovernment to keep ISIS from entering the Kurdish enclave].

Sunni leaders, while now no longer having to deal with the hated Nouri al-Maliki, will take a lot of convincing before they see his successor, Haider al-Abadi as anything but “not Maliki”.  As if to prove the point, Abadi has yet to fill the two most sensitive posts in his government, Ministers of Interior and Defense.  These ministries, under Maliki, systematically excluded and in some case persecuted Sunni leaders.  According to informed sources, Abadi is on the verge of naming a Sunni to head one of these ministries [But according to another source, was prevented from naming Sunnis to either post due to pressure from Teheran].  Another problem, according analysts, is just what kind of “National Guard” Baghdad has in mind.  The creation of this new military component has been advertised as allowing the Sunnis to be organized and supported by Baghdad in an effort protect those areas of the country where they predominate.  Yet, according to one well-informed source, it has yet to be decided whether the National Guard will be allowed to operate as more than a local constabulary.

SYRIA.          As noted above, if these problems seem formidable, they pale in comparison to the challenges faced in Syria.  To begin with, there is no credible force to face ISIS and other Sunni Jihadist groups other than the Assad government.  In fact, it has been long argued within the Administration, that such a situation is precisely why the US should not get involved in Syria’s civil war.  However, with ISIS’s sweeping initial victories, it became clear to the Administration that it was worth the risk of indirectly aiding the Assad regime by going after the bases and major resources of its most formidable adversaries.  The Gulf States and Jordan made a similar calculation.  Not only are they participating in the air attacks against ISIS but, much to the surprise of a number of veteran analysts, are doing so without any hesitation of “going public” about it.  “Weren’t you shocked that the Jordanians, who have gone to great lengths to keep under wraps their participation in the training of anti-Assad rebels, would announce its role in the air war?” asked one analyst somewhat rhetorically.

ISIS & US:   “This “coming out of the closet” as one State Department official put it this week, is one of a number benefits ISIS’s sweep into Iraq has engendered, according to a number of analysts.  Perhaps the most important outcome, say a number of veteran analysts, is the reemergence of US military power in the region – and with it – increased respect for the Obama Administration among friends in the region.  “It’s the silver lining” is the way one analyst put it.  Another said ISIS brutality and stunning military successes have “finally shaken the tree” at the White House.  State Department officials in particular have long argued for a more forceful response to the horrid civil war in Syria, only to be sidelined by White House opposition.  While refusing to gloat [Repeatedly, State Department officials when asked whether the rise of ISIS could have been prevented by a bolder US policy in the early stages of the Syrian civil war, one urged by then Secretary Clinton among others at a senior level in the Administration, have refused to, as one put it this week, “…look back at ‘what ifs’.”], clearly State Department officials feel energized by the White House’s new found embrace of their expertise.

Turkey & Qatar:  Still, as European reluctance to join the US in engaging ISIS in Syria has shown, the problem presented there daunts even the most optimistic US official.  Even among those Arabs governments that are participating in military operations, there are a variety of aims.  For example Qatar, which was under heavy pressure to join the coalition, still looks to the future enhancement of the Moslem Brotherhood [MB], which is anathema, particularly to the Saudis and the UAE.  Then, there is the question of the role of Turkey, another MB supporter.  Until they traded ISIS captives for their 40+ diplomats held by the Jihadists, Turkey refused to join the “coalition.”  Now, under their somewhat mercurial President, Recep Erdogan, the Turks are “coming on board” as one Administration official put it this week.  “But with the Turks you can never tell how much cooperation you can expect,” he adds.  At the very least, US officials expect Turkey to staunch the flow of fighters (nearly all jihadists) entering Syria from along its 500 mile border.  The US military would also like to be able to operate from its base at Incirlik, making air operations over Syria much less difficult.  “With or without Incirlik, this is going to be one long row to hoe,” said a key US official this week.

Thursday, September 25, 2014


The Opinion Pages| Op-Ed Columnist

ISIS Crisis

SEPT. 23, 2014

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There is a tension at the heart of President Obama’s campaign to confront the Islamic State, and it explains a lot about why he has so much trouble articulating and implementing his strategy. Quite simply, it is the tension between two vital goals — promoting the “soul-searching” that ISIS’s emergence has triggered in the Arab-Muslim world and “searching and destroying” ISIS in its strongholds in Syria and Iraq.
Get used to it. This tension is not going away. Obama will have to lead through it.
The good news: The rise of the Islamic State, also known and ISIS, is triggering some long overdue, brutally honest, soul-searching by Arabs and Muslims about how such a large, murderous Sunni death cult could have emerged in their midst. Look at a few samples, starting with “The Barbarians Within Our Gates,” written in Politico last week by Hisham Melhem, the Washington bureau chief of Al-Arabiya, the Arabic satellite channel.
 “With his decision to use force against the violent extremists of the Islamic State, President Obama ... is stepping once again — and with understandably great reluctance — into the chaos of an entire civilization that has broken down. Arab civilization, such as we knew it, is all but gone. The Arab world today is more violent, unstable, fragmented and driven by extremism — the extremism of the rulers and those in opposition — than at any time since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire a century ago.
“Every hope of modern Arab history has been betrayed,” Melhem added. “The promise of political empowerment, the return of politics, the restoration of human dignity heralded by the season of Arab uprisings in their early heydays — all has given way to civil wars, ethnic, sectarian and regional divisions and the reassertion of absolutism, both in its military and atavistic forms. ... The jihadists of the Islamic State, in other words, did not emerge from nowhere. They climbed out of a rotting, empty hulk — what was left of a broken-down civilization.”
The liberal Saudi analyst Turki al-Hamad responded in the London-based Al-Arab newspaper to King Abdullah’s call for Saudi religious leaders to confront ISIS ideology: How can they? al-Hamad asked. They all embrace the same anti-pluralistic, puritanical Wahhabi Sunni ideology that Saudi Arabia diffused, at home and abroad, to the mosques that nurtured ISIS.
“They are unable to face the groups of violence, extremism and beheadings, not out of laziness or procrastination, but because all of them share in that same ideology,” al-Hamad wrote. “How can they confront an ideology that they themselves carry within them and within their mind-set?”
The Lebanese Shiite writer Hanin Ghaddar in an essay in August on Lebanon’s Now website wrote: “To fight the I.S. and other radical groups, and to prevent the rise of new autocratic rulers, we need to assume responsibility for the collective failures that have produced all of these awful tyrants and fanatics. Our media and education systems are liable for the monster we helped create. ... We need to teach our children how to learn from our mistakes instead of how to master the art of denial. When our educators and journalists start to understand the significance of individual rights, and admit that we have failed to be citizens, then we can start hoping for freedom, even if it is achieved slowly.”
Nurturing this soul-searching is a vital — and smart — part of the Obama strategy. In committing America to an air-campaign-only against ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq, Obama has declared that the ground war will have to be fought by Arabs and Muslims, not just because this is their war and they should take the brunt of the casualties, but because the very act of their organizing themselves across Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish lines — the very act of overcoming their debilitating sectarian and political differences that would be required to defeat ISIS on the ground — is the necessary ingredient for creating any kind of decent, consensual government that could replace ISIS in any self-sustaining way